As the Trump administration pushes to broker a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, analysts and traders are trying to assess how any potential deal might reshape Europe’s energy flows.

Reaching such an agreement is far from guaranteed. Major obstacles and disagreements remain, and Russia has yet to signal its stance on the proposal. White House envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow next week to discuss the plan with the Kremlin, at a time when Russia appears reluctant to accept any arrangement that does not fully meet its demands.

Even if a deal were reached — which is not the base case for many market participants — it is unlikely to change Europe’s hesitation about returning to Russian energy, an exposure the bloc has spent years working to unwind. Most analysts agree that a “clean” ceasefire would not meaningfully alter Europe’s post-2022 stance.

The decision to abandon Russian pipeline gas has been costly for households and businesses across Europe. Energy bills and industrial expenses surged sharply. And more than three years after the start of the energy crisis that weighed heavily on living standards and competitiveness, the prospect of easier Russian flows is not generating much enthusiasm among EU capitals.

No way back

Russian gas is not banned in the EU — at least not yet. Under current plans, the bloc intends to phase out imports of Russian LNG by 2027.

But a peace deal is unlikely to reverse Europe’s long-term pivot away from Russian energy.

Europe also lacks an easy or quick way to restart Russian pipeline flows, even if peace were declared tomorrow. Nord Stream has been effectively destroyed. The Yamal–Europe pipeline has been idle since Poland terminated its contract. And the Ukraine–Gazprom transit agreement expires next year, with no political will on either side to renew it. Infrastructure, contracts, and politics all point in one direction — no swift return.

As Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote this week: “Even if sanctions on Russia’s energy sector were relaxed, European governments would be reluctant to re-embrace Moscow as a major supplier after the 2022 shock.”

In reality, most EU countries have received no Russian gas for nearly three years — and many have no intention of resuming dependence on the Kremlin, even under a fair peace settlement for Ukraine.

Gas prices remained relatively contained this year, staying within a narrow range despite storage sites filling at a slower pace than previous years ahead of winter. EU storage levels are currently roughly ten percentage points below last year’s levels and the five-year average. As of November 25, they stood near 77%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Despite lower storage, markets appear confident that Europe has enough supply for the winter, thanks to record US LNG exports, most of which are now heading to Europe.

Even if Russian pipeline gas magically returned, Europe has already rebuilt its entire supply system around LNG.

Strong LNG flows ease winter worries

The US exported 10.1 million metric tons of LNG in October, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters, becoming the first country ever to exceed 10 million tons in a single month. Venture Global’s Plaquemines project and higher output from Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 helped boost volumes.

About 69% of US LNG exports went to Europe last month.

US LNG is set to grow further. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects LNG exports to reach 14.9 billion cubic feet per day this year — up 25% from 2024 — and to increase another 10% by 2026. Faster-than-expected ramp-ups at Plaquemines have pushed the agency to raise its short-term forecasts.

More supply is coming globally as well. Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, is pushing ahead with the largest expansion in its history, planning to boost export capacity by 85% by 2030.

This wave of supply is welcome news for Europe, especially as the EU moves to soften its proposed “Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive” (CSDDD), which could have disrupted LNG flows and even imposed penalties on companies. Fears over security of supply have prompted policymakers to rewrite the proposal.

European gas prices have not experienced the sharp winter surges seen in past years. Instead, TTF benchmark prices in Amsterdam fell below €30 per megawatt-hour this week — the lowest in a year and a half — supported by strong LNG arrivals, mild weather, and talk of a potential Ukraine peace deal.

In another sign of supply comfort, France’s TotalEnergies will remove its Le Havre floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), installed in 2022 as an “emergency backup.” The company said the facility is no longer needed.

Portfolio managers are also increasingly positioning for lower prices. Speculators have shifted from net-long to net-short on TTF futures for the first time since March 2024, according to ING.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted Thursday: “Once again, the move was driven by new short positions, pushing total shorts to another record high.”

They warned, however, that such large short positions carry significant risk if supply or demand delivers surprises during the winter.

Copper prices climbed back above $11,000 per metric ton this week, supported by several remarks made during a copper industry conference in Shanghai, according to Volkmar Bauer, FX market analyst at Commerzbank.

Uncertainty over US tariffs fuels stockpiling on COMEX

Bauer said: “The head of a metals and mining research firm warned that copper prices in the United States may continue to trade at higher levels compared with the global market, due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. This could trigger further stockpiling on COMEX and lead to a decline in inventories outside the US. Concerns over raw material shortages are adding further pressure, with the firm estimating that the copper concentrate market will face a deficit of around 500,000 tons next year.”

He added: “A representative from a Canadian mining company noted that global smelter operating rates have fallen to an all-time low of 75% due to a shortage of feedstock. These rates may fall even further if supply conditions fail to improve. Despite these warnings and the downbeat commentary, the latest data provides little evidence of any slowdown in copper production.”

Bauer continued: “As we have pointed out on several occasions, China has maintained high levels of metals production. However, plans to build an additional two million tons of new smelting capacity have been suspended, according to an official from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association at the conference. Moreover, available inventories on the London Metal Exchange have increased in recent weeks, rising by about 100,000 tons from their June lows to the highest level in nearly nine months. Therefore, we believe the near-term upside potential for copper prices remains limited.”

Bitcoin held steady on Friday after climbing back above the $90,000 mark this week, as markets intensified their bets on an imminent interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve and assessed the implications of a potential change in leadership at the US central bank.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading flat at $91,202.9 by 01:32 Eastern Time (06:32 GMT), after briefly dropping to nearly $80,000 last Friday — its weakest level since April.

Bitcoin was on track to post a weekly gain of roughly 8% after four straight weeks of losses, supported by institutional inflows.

Rate-cut bets surge sharply and support Bitcoin’s recovery

The rebound coincided with a strong jump in expectations of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point cut soaring to around 87%, a sharp rise from about 39% just a week earlier.

Lower interest rates tend to make high-risk assets such as Bitcoin more attractive by easing liquidity constraints and encouraging investment flows.

Adding to the positive sentiment are rising expectations that Kevin Hassett — a White House economic adviser — could be nominated as the next Fed chair.

Many market participants view him as more dovish compared with current policymakers, potentially steering the central bank toward a more aggressive path of rate reductions.

This possibility appears to reinforce expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance, supporting investor appetite for risk-on assets.

Still, investors remain cautious; sticky inflation and mixed US economic data have prompted some to question how quickly or forcefully the Fed may move, raising concerns over whether Bitcoin’s rebound marks the start of a sustainable uptrend or merely a temporary bounce.

Cryptocurrency prices today: muted performance for altcoins in tight ranges

Most alternative cryptocurrencies traded within narrow ranges on Friday, echoing Bitcoin’s subdued tone.

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, slipped 0.5% to $3,013.92.

XRP, the third-largest token, was little changed at $2.21.

Brent crude futures were little changed on Friday, as investors monitored progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and awaited the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday, looking for signals on potential supply shifts that continue to pressure prices.

Front-month Brent futures — which expire on Friday — were unchanged at $63.34 a barrel by 01:34 GMT in thin trading, after settling 21 cents higher on Thursday. The more active February contract stood at $62.85 a barrel, down two cents.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 35 cents, or 0.60%, to $59.00 a barrel. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Both benchmarks were heading toward a fourth straight monthly loss, the longest losing streak since 2023, driven by increased global supply that has weighed on prices.

Investors are watching talks on a Washington-led peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that could result in the lifting of Western sanctions on Russian oil, potentially boosting global supply and pushing prices lower.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the draft peace proposals discussed by the United States and Ukraine could serve as a basis for future agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine, but emphasized that Russia would continue fighting if no accord is reached.

Putin added that US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, plans to visit Moscow early next week.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that delegations from Ukraine and the United States will meet this week to finalize a formula agreed during the Geneva talks to achieve peace and secure security guarantees for Kyiv.

“After several promising starts that failed to materialize, participants are reluctant to take strong positions until there is tangible progress — or a breakdown in the talks,” said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore in a note.

OPEC+ meeting expectations

OPEC+ is expected to keep oil production levels unchanged during its meetings on Sunday and agree on a mechanism to assess member countries’ maximum production capacity, according to two delegates from the group and a source familiar with OPEC+ discussions cited by Reuters.

Weekly gains supported by hopes of a US rate cut

Brent and WTI were on track to end the week more than 1% higher, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, potentially boosting economic growth and oil demand.

A drop in the number of active US oil rigs to the lowest level in four years this week also provided additional support to prices.